• A novel analytical model captures the full interaction between sequentially installed combined support systems and reinforced rock, incorporating elastic-brittle-plastic behavior and critical displacement transitions.
• Virtual support pressure integrates the tunnel face spatial effect, enabling accurate prediction of ground characteristic curves under varied ground conditions.
• The proposed method outperforms existing models and the convergence-confinement approach, as validated by numerical simulations and field measurements.
• Key parameters—residual cohesion, friction angle of reinforced ground, and reinforcement thickness—significantly influence tunnel behavior; secondary support stiffness and installation timing critically affect support pressure.