• A novel analytical model integrates strain-softening behavior and intermediate principal stress to predict ground reaction curves for reinforced tunnels, overcoming limitations of existing models.
• Existing models overestimate reinforcement effects; deformation prediction errors can exceed 75% when using single geological material models.
• Neglecting softening and residual zones in natural regions leads to errors over 50%, highlighting the need for accurate constitutive modeling.
• Incorporating intermediate principal stress reduces tunnel deformation by at least 30%, offering significant cost savings in reinforcement and support.
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