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Open AccessDOI: 10.1016/j.ijmst.2025.06.005Original Research

Fault reactivation and seismic risks induced by deep reservoir fracturing: Mechanisms, prediction and perspectives

JU Yang¹,FU Guoming¹,ZHOU Hongwei¹,GE Shirong¹,PENG Suping¹

China University of Mining & Technology – Beijing

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Fault reactivation and seismic risks induced by deep reservoir fracturing: Mechanisms, prediction and perspectives
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Academic Research Journal
Published:January 15, 2025Edition:Vol. 32, Issue 6 • pp. 100-112Citation:JU Yang et al. (2025), Academic Research Journal
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Key Takeaways & Executive Findings

  • • Elevated pore pressure, modified fault-loading conditions, and aseismic slip are primary drivers of fault reactivation and induced seismicity. • Probabilistic forecasting and machine learning are increasingly used for seismic risk assessment, but face limitations from geological heterogeneity and data scarcity. • Fluid–rock interactions complicate the development of universally applicable models, constraining the generalizability of mitigation strategies. • Advancements in understanding mechanisms and improving prediction are essential for safe and sustainable deep-subsurface energy development.
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Abstract

With the advancement of fracturing technologies in deeper and more geologically complex formations, fault reactivation and induced seismicity have attracted increasing attention. The increasing frequency and magnitude of these events underscore the need for a robust understanding of the governing physical mechanisms. Elevated pore pressure, modified fault-loading conditions, and aseismic slip are widely acknowledged as the primary drivers. Recent studies have explored these mechanisms under varying factors, including fluid properties, rock ductility, poroelastic responses, and evolving fault stress states, thereby offering critical insights into model refinement. Probabilistic forecasting approaches, which combine statistical analyses of historical data with real-time monitoring, are being increasingly adopted in seismic risk assessments. In parallel, machine learning techniques are employed to process large seismic datasets and identify key patterns. However, their predictive capabilities remain limited by geological heterogeneity, subsurface complexity, and scarce observational data. Moreover, fluid–rock interactions further complicate the development of universally applicable models, thereby constraining the generalizability of mitigation strategies. This review synthesizes the current understanding of induced seismicity mechanisms, evaluates the prevailing prediction and mitigation methods, and identifies major challenges and future research directions. Advancements in these areas are essential to enhancing seismic risk management and ensuring the safe, sustainable development of deep-subsurface energy resources.

1. Introduction

Fracturing technology has been widely used in the extraction of deep oil, gas, coal, and geothermal resources, notably to enhance resource development efficiency [1,2]. However, the increasing occurrence of induced seismicity associated with deep-stratum fracturing has become a major concern in energy extraction technologies. In recent years, a series of high-profile field cases have drawn global attention to the seismic risks associated with subsurface engineering activities. In the United States, regions such as Oklahoma and Texas have experienced a surge in seismicity linked to hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal, as documented by dense seism

and predictability of these activities [4]. Similarly, China’s Sichuan Basin has experienced moderate to large induced earthquakes (Mw>5) accompanied by large-scale shale gas hydraulic fracturing, prompting intensive studies and regulatory attention [5]. These cases highlight that induced seismicity is not only a theoretical or localized concern but also a pressing global issue with significant implications for infrastructure safety, public acceptance, and sustainable resource development [6]. A comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms driving fault reactivation is essential for developing effective risk mitigation strategies [7]. Fault slip, a fundamental process in earthquake generation, occurs when accumulated stress along a fault plane is suddenly released, causing the fault to move and generate seismic waves. Engineering activities can alter the fault normal stress, shear stress, pore pressure, and friction coefficients, thereby impacting fault stability and increasing seismicity risk [8]. Therefore, scientific understanding and accurate description of the fault slip mechanism and its influencing factors are crucial for optimizing the design and implementation of

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JU Yang, FU Guoming, ZHOU Hongwei, GE Shirong, PENG Suping (2025). Fault reactivation and seismic risks induced by deep reservoir fracturing: Mechanisms, prediction and perspectives. SinoTechIntel Verified Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2025.06.005
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the primary mechanisms of fault reactivation induced by deep reservoir fracturing?

The primary mechanisms include elevated pore pressure, modified fault-loading conditions, and aseismic slip. These factors reduce effective normal stress and shear strength along faults, leading to slip and induced seismicity.

How is seismic risk predicted in the context of induced seismicity?

Seismic risk is predicted using probabilistic forecasting approaches that combine statistical analyses of historical data with real-time monitoring. Machine learning techniques are also employed to process large seismic datasets and identify patterns, though their predictive capabilities are limited by geological heterogeneity and data scarcity.

What are the main challenges in developing universally applicable models for induced seismicity?

Challenges include geological heterogeneity, subsurface complexity, scarce observational data, and fluid–rock interactions that complicate model development. These factors constrain the generalizability of mitigation strategies.

Why is induced seismicity a global concern?

Induced seismicity has been observed in various regions, such as Oklahoma and Texas in the United States, and the Sichuan Basin in China, with moderate to large earthquakes linked to hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal. These events pose risks to infrastructure safety, public acceptance, and sustainable resource development.

What future research directions are suggested for managing induced seismicity?

Future research should focus on advancing understanding of fault slip mechanisms, improving prediction models through integration of real-time data and machine learning, and developing robust mitigation strategies that account for fluid–rock interactions and geological complexity.

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