• Higher binder content slightly increases early-age thermal cracking risk in HSR bridge piers, but this can be offset by using low-heat cements and high-thermal-conductivity formwork.
• A novel variable, “representative temperature rise for unit concrete,” integrates binder content, cement type, and formwork type to characterize the pier's inherent thermal property.
• Three linear regression models were developed to predict the earliest safe demolding age, enabling engineers to optimize formwork removal timing without complex simulations.
• The findings provide practical recommendations for mitigating early-age thermal cracking in high-altitude railway bridge construction, enhancing structural durability and safety.
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