China's 2025 Strategic Export Controls on Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony: Global Semiconductor Moats and Western Supply Vulnerabilities

• China's 2024 export controls cover 98% of global raw gallium supply, 60% of germanium, and 48% of antimony, directly threatening US AESA radar and 5G/6G infrastructure. • The 7N/8N purity barrier: Chinese refiners achieve 95%+ yields at industrial scale, while Western pilot projects report yields below 85%, with CAPEX exceeding $500,000 per annual metric ton. • Western greenfield hydrometallurgical facilities face 5-7 year lead times and environmental permitting hurdles, making near-term substitution impossible. • Antimony trioxide has no viable substitute in munitions primers and flame retardants, creating a direct defense supply chain risk. • The Bayer process economics: gallium extraction is only viable as a by-product of alumina refining, a scale advantage China holds with over 70 million tonnes of alumina capacity.