• Breakdown delay time (Td) is a more suitable indicator than breakdown strength (Eb) for characterizing ore particle susceptibility to electrical breakdown in HVP breakage.
• A probabilistic model based on the Weibull distribution effectively describes the relationship between breakdown probability and Td.
• Regression analyses reveal significant influences of operating parameters and particle properties on Td and size reduction degree in HVP breakage.
• The developed models show potential for predicting metallic mineral content and HVP breakage degree from operational and material parameters.
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