• A novel kinetic energy calculation model for roadway excavation is proposed, based on fracture and energy states of the rock mass.
• Energy evolution during excavation is categorized into four stages: in-situ stress accumulation, coal compression, plastic deformation, and coal failure.
• Kinetic energy and energy release per unit volume increase nonlinearly with mining depth and stress concentration factor, but decrease linearly with plastic zone width.
• The proposed rock burst risk evaluation method is validated by field observations and aligns with the drilling cuttings method.